Friday, November 6, 2009

My Saints-Panthers prediction

A few pregame thoughts on New Orleans and Carolina, who play at 4:05 p.m. Sunday:

-- I love watching Saints receiver Marques Colston play. He’s not that fast, but he’s big and strong and just goes up and gets it over shorter defensive backs. He’s everything, in other words, that Dwayne Jarrett should be but hasn’t been for the Panthers. And Colston was a seventh-round pick; Jarrett a second-rounder.

-- The key for Carolina in this game: a lot of 10- to 12-play drives on offense. That means running the ball effectively, as usual. I think Carolina’s only chance at an upset is to gain 200 yards on the ground, which likely would translate into 35 minutes of possession time, which would give New Orleans a couple fewer shots than the Saints are used to in terms of scoring.

-- Don’t discount the confidence factor in this one with Jake Delhomme. He’s never lost a game as a starter in the Superdome. For a quarterback whose confidence has been on-and-off all season, that’s big. He’s comfortable there – the city has long been a home away from home for him, personally and professionally.

-- There isn’t a more fun offense to watch this season than the one that Drew Brees runs for the Saints. I mean, 39 points per game? That’s ridiculously good. The Charlotte Bobcats often don’t get 39 in a half.

-- The Saints are 7-0, but they aren’t going to go undefeated. I think they will ultimately lose 2-3 games this regular season. But despite their lack of previous success at home against Carolina, they are clearly the hotter team and their defense has finally stopped being so much of a liability. It will be entertaining, but ultimately: New Orleans 34, Carolina 24.

The stats: After starting 4-1 picking Panthers’ games this season, I’ve faltered the past two weeks on Panther predictions and now rest at a mediocre 4-3. Before the 2009 season began, I picked Carolina to go 7-9, and I’ll stick by that one until it’s no longer statistically possible.


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36 comments:

Anonymous said...

The big pussycats will have to play an exceptionally perfect mistake free game but its not mission impossible by any means. Hard to believe the Aints have become the contender Saints but deep down we know they are are still the pretender Aints and always will be.

Pussycats by 14.

samurai said...

I believe in miracles so i believe the Panthers can win. 8) They are definitely going to have to play more like they did last Sunday, and NOT like they did the previous six weeks.

MrBernz said...

If the Panthers dont turn the ball over they can win. If they turn it over , well, we know what happens...

Anonymous said...

We'll see. I think my 5-11 prediction is a little closer to the mark. Look at our schedule, which are the FOUR teams we'll beat?... Hope is great but don't go in expecting miracles, expect what we ARE with Delhomme and if you get surprised great... but last game was one of the biggest flukes in the NFL this year. No way even 200yrd.'s rushing wins against the saints unless we get an impossible 5-6 turnovers again. Oh and... the card.'s are NOT the saints. Cover your eyes for this one and Jake will return to form. His true BAD form.

Paul said...

The Saints are undefeated and that's great for them. The problem is they have achieved this by beating Detroit, Philly with Kolb at quarterback, Buffalo (can't believe we lost to them), NYJ (overrated), NYG, Miami, and Atlanta. I only see three quality wins but not sold on Miami. The team itself hasn't changed that much. Darren Sharper is probably their best weapon on defense and Sedrick Ellis is out. The offense has always been good. Shockey has never been good against Carolina with any team. We have stopped Brees repeatedly in the past before and I'm sure we'll do it again. Remember, this is practically the same team from previous years. They do not scare the Panthers and we will be very physical from start to finish. In the end, they are what the they are and they are the Aints. Go Panthers!!!

Anonymous said...

I agree Paul, the Panthers should have beat both the Falcons and the Bills. That is a really good point about the Saints quality of wins, they are good, but Superbowl predictions are still somewhat premature. The Panthers are good talented enough to beat any team in the league, if they don't make turnovers.

The Real James said...

Carolina is fully capable of beating the Saints, and I don't care what their record is. When the Panthers play to their potential they still have one of the best teams around. Last week was no fluke, a fluke is when an 0-10 team beats a 10-0 team. Last week was a preview of what the Panthers CAN do when they put it all together. I have watched this team continue to build and improve from their ridiculously slow start for the past few weeks and I believe if they continue that journey New Orleans will see a nastier defense than they've faced all season and a running game that makes their D look weak. Sure the Saints will score, but I don't see them even approaching 30 points against this defense. I called it last week 31-24 Panthers (close enough), and I'm calling it this week 28-20 Panthers. Yep, only 20 for dem Saints. Call me crazy, but at least I'm not predicting them to be the worst team in the NFL then pretending to be a fan, pessimistic bunch of clowns. Get back on your meds because you're getting all depressed again. Go Panthers!

Anonymous said...

Is Smith is doubled and cant get behind his defenders he will be a non-factor like the first 6 games and if that occurs hopefully JD wont try to force his throws to him anyway creating bad passes or interceptions.
Scramble outside the pocket and hit other recievers or tight ends. Smith is not the only reciever.

Anonymous said...

IF Carolina brings their "A" game, they win. Factors:
1) Run first. 2-1 run\pass. Target the outer edges where Turner was having so much success. DT is hands down more talented than Turner, so I would expect to see better gains. Not to mention T.O.P. will limit Brees' opportunities.

2) Keep the passes short and sweet. Over the middle is nice & productive.

3)CLOCK MANAGEMENT - no lead is ever enough.

4) Defensive pressure. Knock 'em and Stop 'em.


They can do this.

Anonymous said...

In this one it is the Saints who are the talented team. They have proven they can win in a variety of ways. They play with determination, the Panthers are lack luster too many times in a game, and up and down from one quarter to the next. When it counts, the Panthers fail.

Saints by 20!

Curtis said...

I don't know if you saw it Real James, but I gave you your props last week on Scott's blog for being the only one who not only called for the Panthers to win but also called the score damn close. Well done sir.

I agree that, IF the Panthers bring their A game like they did last week, that they can hang with any team in any game. The real question is - how consistent will they be over this next stretch of very important games. All is not lost for this season - yet - but we have a serious hole to get ourselves out of to be sure.

I do think we have a great chance to win this week if our team just plays up to its potential. But don't ask our defense to keep us in it if we do anything like against Buffalo or Washington where we turn it over on our end of the field. Because, it'll be lights out against that Saints potent offense. But if we keep the clock management, out of Brees approach to it - I think we can rattle Drew enough to keep their scoring chances to a minimum.

Fact is, there ain't much room for error here guys and gals...mistake free (or at least minimum) football is about what it has to be. But if it is...we have just a good a shot as anyone.

Besides, since when are we afraid of the freakin' Saints? I don't care what their record is...we should never be scared to face anyone. Period. This is the NFL damn it!!

MrBernz said...

LOL @ a dummy saying last week was a fluke. The Cardinals were 4-2, not like they were really that great. & saying the Saintsarent the Cards? Really? Did you come to that determination all on your own? Warner will be a hall of fame quarterback, & the Panthers intercepted 5 times, playing like they can play. Why is it inconceivable to think they cant intercept Brees 5 times? He is better than the average hall of fame qb? The Panthers can beat any team on the schedule it just has to be timing, they will need to play the kind of football they know , not passing twice as many times as running it. Keep the passes short & let the receiver make the plays, dont depend on Delhomme to make the play for them.

Anonymous said...

I've been saying it all week: Carolina upsets New Orleans, 31-26.
Consider the fact New Orleans is playing on a slightly smaller amount of rest, riding high after the big Monday Night win vs. ATL. 2 TD's for Steve Smith, 1 TD apiece for Williams/Stewart.

Anonymous said...

This argument about who we have played is just stupid. If I'm not mistaken, we play the same teams that Carolina has played or will play. Lastly, there is more to the defense than just Darren Sharper. The corners are exceptionally good as well and Anthony Hargrove will replace Ellis. He is more of a sack threat than Ellis was/is.

Anonymous said...

I think that the panthers can and will beat the saints.Sure the Saints are 7-0 they have Very good offensive Great QB in Drew Brees very good WR and RB and TE.The Saints weakens is at run defensive .with both starting defensive tackles -- Kendrick Clancy and Sedrick Ellis – ruled out for Sunday game.It mean that Saints will have hard time at stooping the run.To beat the saints Panthers will need to run the ball.When it passing down.Jake need to avoid stupid throw if no one is open throw the ball away it much better to punt the ball then throw an INT. On defensive the worst thing that the panthers can do is Stay back and let Drew Brees have all day long to find someone open.Panthers need to blitz brees .It would be smart to SPY on him. prediction Panthers 28 Saints 21

Anonymous said...

FYI, there is no Jason David or Josh Bullocks, Kevin Kaesviharn in the secondary to allow Steve Smith to run free. Jake won't have the time to throw down field and we have always scored against the panthers including coming from 20+ down to take the lead only to lose on a last second field goal.

MrBernz said...

No you dont play the same teams, the Saints play the Lions & Rams, the Panthers dont, the Panthers play the Cardinals & Vikings, i think those are considerably tougher teams.

Poolman said...

Panters' fans -- I agree your team is better than their record this year, but you have never seen a Saints team like this before. It would have been better for ya'll if we had demolished Atlanta instead of it being a close game like it was....that game was our "scare" to get us back on even ground, so we'll be ready to get back to putting 40 burgers on our opponents, starting this Sunday!

SeenThisB4 said...

Mr. Bernz:

The panthers play a first place schedule and the Saints play a 4th place schedule. That's a difference of 2 games on an otherwise identical schedule. Sure, it makes a 4 game swing. But with 7 games played, you're already 4 games back. Not much validity in your statement, especially when the Saints beat 3 teams that the panthers lost to.

Your panthers need to stop Brees and his recievers. Your panthers have the number 1 ranked pass defense. Watch Brees and his receivers tear your defense apart.

Anonymous said...

Scott, I'm tired of people talking smack about Dwayne Jarrett; Fox and Co hasn't given him a chance. I hear people saying that DJ hasn't obviously impressed the coaching staff - well this is the same staff that thinks "Jake's the Guy" and continues to blow our salary cap (along with Hurney).
I'm from Carolina, I currently live in NOLA, and I see Colston a lot; he's a beast. But DJ can be just as good; I hope we don't let him go...but if we do, the next coach he has will allow him to play and people will see just how good he is.

Anonymous said...

Bla Bla bla......Lets keep it simple.....The Saints will be shocked...and Embarrassed....They "wont" be `expecting ~ HELL ~ But they will get it....that will be their downfall...and the Difference...

Panthers 31
Saints 24

MrBernz said...

SeenThisB4 said...
Mr. Bernz:

The panthers play a first place schedule and the Saints play a 4th place schedule. That's a difference of 2 games on an otherwise identical schedule. Sure, it makes a 4 game swing. But with 7 games played, you're already 4 games back. Not much validity in your statement, especially when the Saints beat 3 teams that the panthers lost to.

wtf no validity in my statement? some1 said the same schedule, i corrected that comment you imbecile. My comment was perfectly valid because i told the differences in the schedules. and the 2 games that are different, are far tougher teams than the 2 the Saints play.

CoolBreez said...

The Aint's? Phuleeze. Lay your money on them going to the Superbowl this year. This is not your father's Saints. Are they gonna go undefeated? Probably not but they will handle the Pussycats for sure. You are dreaming that Carolina will win by 14. Bet you believe in the tooth fairy and Santa Clause too.

Anonymous said...

Paul...Why is it none of the teams fans can be more original when TRYING to insult THE BEST TEAM IN THE NFC???

Anonymous said...

Her is Original....

Panthers 31
saints 19

Brees gets knocked out of the game...Panthers will always have their #

Anonymous said...

Your Panthers blow!You idiots who think New Orleans wont win are stupid,stupid,stupid.You jerkoffs are in for a major ass wippin New Orleans 45 Carolina 13

SaintsTheword said...

I do think carolina is better then thier record , i do not think the saints are worse then theirs. If either team brings less to the table then thier best , it will be a defeat for them. I just dont think the saints are ready to lose yet.

records do not say everything , but they do say alot.

Jennifer said...

With the tradedy that happened at Fort. Hood this week and so much ignorance in the world...

What a great and heart warming tribute it was to sing along with Terry Bradshaw and the guys from Fox over in Afganistan on the pregame show today...

May God Continue to Bless America...

Go Panthers!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Nice try kitty cats, but the result is still the same. Enjoy your L. I told you your loss was coming Nov 8th. Meowwww go home kitty cats!

Jennifer said...

***Nice try kitty cats, but the result is still the same. Enjoy your L. I told you your loss was coming Nov 8th. Meowwww go home kitty cats.

Anon...did you just go from training pants to big boy britches with that comment?

Seriously of all the teams the Saints have played this year, you almost had your a@@ handed to you, by as you say some Kitty Cats...

Drew Brees and Co DIDNT beat us today, we beat ourselves....sadly yes in the books, that still makes you 8-0...but I have to smile knowing that the team most of you consider one of the worst in the league, gave you the best run for your record....<:-)

Curtis said...

Jen, don't look for any real insight from the Saints fans commenting on here...pretty lame overall. I mean, these are the same guys predicting the Saints to win by 30 or 40 points. I talked to some of my friends who live in NO who went to the game (and are fans that actually understand football). They said it...the Panthers should have won that game. Of course, they were more than happy to take the win.

Well, what can we say...I mean, we played our offensive game plan for the most part - but once again, turnovers, penalties, mistakes kill us. And on defense it was a mix...played solid on 90% of the plays, but didn't eliminate the big plays. And that killed us as well.

One other take away I had...there used to be a time when there was no other QB in the league that I wanted in the 2 minute, 4th quarter, game on the line more than Jake. But today, that feeling wasn't there. If anything, I felt like once I knew it was in the hands of Jake that the game was done. First time, that was true. Second time, D'angelo coughed it up...but nevertheless, I never felt like Jake could get us 98 yards or even 50 yards down the field.

In the end, should of never come to that.

Anonymous said...

Good game kats.

1 turnover killed you , but thats the way the pigskin bounces.

as i stated earlier , you are much better then your record indicates.

saints really suck first half when they play a good team. look at the phins game. second half they come out to play. look at the scoring in this game.

we play you guys again , and you will have your chance at revenge. look at history. saints have started with a bang before and ended with a wimper. as a fan i hope this time is different , but history must be considered.

you lost today. no one with a brain thinks its because you are a bad team. We won today , no one with a brain thinks its because we are just a super lucky team. understand where i am comming from? these are both good teams , in the end though , its w/l that decides who is rememberd and who is not.

we in new orleans have paid alot of dues. is it wrong to give our team a little credit?

i certainly have no qualms about giving you yours.

Anonymous said...

"Anon...did you just go from training pants to big boy britches with that comment?

Seriously of all the teams the Saints have played this year, you almost had your a@@ handed to you, by as you say some Kitty Cats...

Drew Brees and Co DIDNT beat us today, we beat ourselves....sadly yes in the books, that still makes you 8-0...but I have to smile knowing that the team most of you consider one of the worst in the league, gave you the best run for your record....<:-)"

Why don't you go wash some dishes or paint your nails. You obviously know nothing about football stupid. Do what yourself a favor and quit being a dumb ass kitty kat fan Jennifer.

Jennifer said...

Considering you dont even know how to speak or write properly, I take your stupid and dumb comments as a compliment wee man!!!

Thanks for mentioning the nails, they did need a change of color.<:-)

And lastly, get your "panties" out of a wad and dont be so intimidated that many women probably know more than you do about the game...

Cheers...

Anonymous said...

Ha I don't know how to talk. Ha you mean you don't know how to talk you hick. What the heck is a Anon?
Shut up dumb ass. Go do your hair or go wash dishes like I said. That's all your probably good for anyway.

cheap viagra said...

The saints gonna lose this times, their team stinks so bad, but there's a possibility for the panthers if they practice hard.