Friday, October 30, 2009

My Panthers-Cardinals prediction

OK, here's a pop quiz. After which 2009 Panther game did Jake Delhomme say, “I should get the blame. It’s inexcusable. It’s disappointing.”

You’ve got a lot of choices there, don’t you? The correct answer is after the Arizona playoff game – the 33-13 loss that started all the mess around here. Delhomme had six turnovers in that one and never has completely recovered.

Now he will play Arizona again, in Phoenix this time. The bad news for Delhomme is that the Cardinal defense may actually be better right now than the one from last year’s Super Bowl team.

-- You may know that Delhomme and Arizona quarterback Kurt Warner were teammates on the 1998 Amsterdam Admirals. Warner beat Delhomme out for the starting job and started almost all season. (They were each paid about $1,600 per game back then – a total of $16,000 for the 10-game season). What you may not know is that the field where the Admirals played had a moat surrounding it to keep unruly fans off the field.

-- It will be really interesting to see how the Panthers cover – or don’t cover – Larry Fitzgerald. Because Warner’s release is so quick, the Panthers’ defensive line won’t have many chances to get to him unless the secondary plays really well.
Putting Chris Gamble on Fitzgerald most of the time is the best way to go, but he better get a lot of safety help, too. Fitzgerald is particularly dangerous near the goal line because of his size – he’s scored five times already this season and absolutely killed the Panthers in the playoff rout.

-- I’ve called for Delhomme’s benching for much of the past month, but coach John Fox hasn’t listened (no surprise there). Fox has wedded himself to Delhomme, and it would be a fine storybook finish for Delhomme today if he could exorcise some Arizona demons.

Could it happen? Yes, but only if the Panthers’ running game and defense dominates. Delhomme has a chance to be effective then.

Still, the Cardinals are hot -- did you see that impressive win over the New York Giants last week? -- and they have too many weapons.

My prediction: Arizona 27, Carolina 17.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

92-59?! Bobcats get rolled

Some thoughts after the Bobcats lost their season opener by 33 and before their home opener against the New York Knicks Friday night:

-- When I first saw the Charlotte Bobcats’ final score roll across a TV screen Wednesday night, I thought I had misread it and that it must say “92-89.”
Well, that’s a respectable season-opening loss to the Boston Celtics on the road, I thought. But 92-59?!

When your season-opening point total can’t eclipse what the New England Patriots put up in an NFL game a couple of weeks ago, you’ve got a team that’s already in trouble. When Bobcats coach Larry Brown said his team looked “scared to death before the game,” that doesn’t speak well for anybody’s preseason preparation.

-- I’m looking forward to seeing new Bobcats center Tyson Chandler play tonight. He made basically no impact against the Celtics, but the Bobcats badly neeed him to be good for them to do anything this season.

-- It’s a very close call as to which of Charlotte’s major pro teams opened the season in worse fashion – the Bobcats’ 33-point loss to Boston Wednesday or the 38-10 thrashing the Panthers took against Philadelphia on Sept.13. I’d vote for the Panthers, though, since that loss came at home.

-- Get ready to see some three-point firing – and misfiring -- tonight. Under coach Mike D’Antoni the Knicks love the uptempo game and the trey, in good times and bad (which is one reason why Stephen Curry so badly wanted to play for New York).
The Knicks jacked up 39 threes in their 22-point season-opening loss to Miami, making only 10. The Bobcats went 0-for-10 from beyond the stripe against Boston.

-- The Bobcats did get a break from the NBA schedule tonight. The Knicks are as mediocre as the Bobcats are and quite possibly worse. New York basically seems to be killing time (and clearing cap space) to make a big splash like signing LeBron James or Dwyane Wade in the star-studded free-agent class of 2010.

So, in the meantime, Charlotte has a pretty good chance of winning its home opener.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The wrong QB decision

So the Panthers are going to start Jake Delhomme Sunday at Arizona, ending two days of speculation after coach John Fox's public indecision on Monday as to who would start vs. the Cardinals.

I think it's the wrong thing to do, as I've written several times before. I'd start Matt Moore in this one. Here's my reasoning in brief: Delhomme just isn't the same QB as he has been for most of what has been a very good career at Carolina. Something broke last January when he threw 5 interceptions against Arizona, and it hasn't been fixed yet.

So when you've got a quarterback who has lost his confidence and you keep putting him out there, what do you get? You get an NFL-high 13 interceptions, a 2-4 record and an uncomfortable locker room.

Now because I personally like Jake very much, I'd be happy for him if Sunday turns into a storybook: if he throws a handful of touchdown passes, cuts the mistakes out and leads Carolina to an upset win. And maybe this will happen -- the NFL fools millions of people every Sunday, which is one reason why all those casinos glisten in Las Vegas.

But I don't think it will work out that way. If you keep doing the same thing, as coach John Fox is doing, and then expect a different result... well, let's just say there are a lot of jobs on the line here, and putting your future in the hands of No.17 these days is pretty shaky.

Fox is a ferociously loyal man, and so it's very hard for him to pull the trigger on this QB switch. But sooner or later this season, I continue to believe it has to happen.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Jake, Fox and the new QB mystery

I just came from John Fox's Monday afternoon press conference, in which he said he "hadn't decided" who will start at QB Sunday for Carolina at Arizona.

This signified a major shift for Fox, who on most Mondays after Panther losses simply declares his confidence in Delhomme, gives some variation on the "Jake is my guy" theme and moves along to the next question.

Not this time. Fox said he might decide Wednesday, or Friday and even left open the option that he may not even announce a starter this week at all -- that whomever trots out on the field Sunday for the first series will be the starter.

But in reading the tea leaves, it sounds to me like a change is coming and that Fox, for competitive reasons, simply doesn't want to say what it is yet.

Matt Moore would be the likeliest candidate, since A.J. Feeley has barely been a Panther at all, but it's hard to tell which way Fox is going as yet. (It will become more apparent Wednesday, when whichever QB is getting the most snaps with the first-string offense will unofficially have the inside track).

Fox is obviously having trouble pulling the trigger on benching Jake. The coach is famously loyal, and Jake has been the QB for almost every big win here in Fox's tenure. But Fox has to do something. The Panthers are 2-4 and Fox, in one of his most honest statements Monday, said the team was "lucky to be 2-4" given that their current turnover ratio is minus-14. And of course Fox's own job is in question here, too.

Delhomme has thrown an NFL-high 13 interceptions in six games this year. He has looked lost for much of the season and, after throwing three of those picks in Sunday's 20-9 loss to Buffalo, he sounded somewhat lost, too.

As I've written before -- both in Monday's newspaper and back on Sept.29 after Delhomme had such a bad game against Dallas -- the Panthers need to bench Delhomme. He's the same great guy off the field, but he's a different, not-nearly-as-great-in-fact-verging-toward-awful QB on the field this season.

I'd go with Moore, and let Jake be the No.2 QB and come in if Moore struggles. I know Delhomme would want to exorcise some demons against Arizona -- which started the Jake freefall by making him turn it over six times in January.

But Fox owes it to his team (especially a defense that deserved better Sunday) to give some other QB a chance.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

5 things I didn't like in loss to Buffalo

Well, we could make this list a lot longer. But in the interests of time, here are the 5 things I didn't like the most in Carolina's 20-9 loss to Buffalo.

1) Kenny Moore's fumble. No, it wasn't all his fault. Not at all. But that punt-return fumble cinched the game for Buffalo just when Carolina had some momentum.

2) Jake Delhomme's 3 interceptions. That makes 13 picks for the season for No.17 if you're counting (compared to 4 TD passes, and still zero TD passes to wide receivers). You've got to think the Panthers will again consider a QB change at this point -- but John Fox is so wedded to Delhomme at this point it will be hard for him to pull the trigger.

"Like all positions we will evaluate it and whatever changes we need to make we'll make," Fox said of the changing-quarterback possibility postgame. Hmmm. That's not nearly as strongly as Fox generally defends Delhomme.

As I wrote following the Dallas loss on Sept.29, I've thought for awhile it's time for Delhomme to sit down -- not permanently, but at least temporarily.

3) 425-167. That's the total yardage in this one -- Carolina had the 425. And still lost by 11. That is just ridiculous, really.

4) Rushing game. Against the NFL's No.32-ranked run defense, the Panthers ran the ball just OK. Yes, they had to throw more because they were behind, but where were the 40-yard bursts in this game? The Panthers ran 25 times for 116 yards with a long run of a modest 17.

5) Defensive turnovers. The Panthers' D generally played well enough to win this one, but it lacked the one big defensive play that could have turned the tide. Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looked very vulnerable -- a second-stringer on a below-.500 team -- but Carolina let him escape.

Buffalo wins 20-9; Panthers fall to 2-4

Jake Delhomme's third interception provided a fitting conclusion to the Panthers' 20-9 home loss to the Buffalo Bills.

Down 17-9, the Panthers actually had a chance. The defense had just forced a punt by Buffalo, and Carolina was going to get the ball back with plenty of time to score.

However, Kenny Moore (of Butler High and Wake Forest) fumbled the punt return away. Buffalo recovered and kicked another field goal to make it 20-9.

Carolina then got the ball back with less than 2 minutes left and 11 points down. Delhomme's third interception came on a desperation heave as he tried to hit tight end Gary Barnidge deep down the middle.

Carolina is now 2-4 on the season.

Panthers cut Bills' lead to 17-9

Carolina has finally scored its first TD of the game. On fourth-and-1 from the 15, DeAngelo Williams burst through a 9-man front and scored standing up. John Kasay's extra point made it 17-9, Buffalo, with 6:28 to go.

The TD was set up when Jake Delhomme hit Steve Smith on a 48-yard pass on fourth-and-4 from Carolina's own 28. The drive covered 9 plays and 78 yards. Carolina would have to do something like that again, then get a two-point conversion to tie the game and send it into overtime.