My Panthers-Bucs prediction and a few pregame notes

Once upon a time, the 2012 Carolina Panthers were considered a real possibility to make the NFL playoffs. They brimmed with optimism in training camp. Their Pro Bowl center took out a newspaper ad saying they would win the next Super Bowl.

And then Tampa happened.

On Sept.9th, the loss to Tampa Bay set the tone for this season -- and what a jarring tone it was. The Panthers had crushed Tampa Bay twice in 2011, but the season opener for both teams was a completely different story.

Carolina could only rush for 10 yards, foreshadowing what would be a season-long problem. DeAngelo Williams had minus-1 yard in six carries, which meant Jonathan Stewart (who didn't play) actually led his backfield mate in rushing after the first game.

Tampa Bay led 13-0 at halftime and won 16-10. The Panthers really have never quite recovered. At 2-7, they now reside in the cellar that was supposed to be the Bucs' home in 2012. Tampa Bay, at 5-4, has a shot at a wild card playoff berth.

-- Have you seen how many points the Bucs have been putting up? In going 4-1 over their past five games, they have scored at least 28 points in every single game. Luke Kuechly and company will have quite a struggle Sunday, particularly with rookie running back Doug Martin (862 rushing yards). Martin has been one of the best rookies in the NFL this season, and his yardage total is nearly as much as Cam Newton, Stewart and Williams combined (873).

-- Newton's arm will be the key to the Panthers' offense Sunday, not his legs. Tampa Bay gives up a ton of yardage through the air -- the Bucs are dead last in the NFL in passing yards allowed (Newton had 303 in the first game). With the attention Tampa Bay always pays to Steve Smith, this could be a Sunday where Brandon LaFell comes up big.

-- With the Panthers fumbling through another season and the holidays around the corner, I expect Sunday's crowd will be somewhat down. But the game that really might end Carolina' 101-game sellout streak comes Dec.23rd, when the Panthers host the Oakland Raiders two days before Christmas.

-- The Panthers have played seven close games this year and only been blown out twice (to each of the Manning brothers). I foresee another close game Sunday -- I am only 4-5 on Panther predictions this season after getting the Denver game right last week. My prediction: Tampa Bay 26, Carolina 22.

Kemba, Cam going in separate directions in Year 2

Charlotte guard Kemba Walker used a wicked crossover move to get open for a 19-footer Wednesday night, then swished it to win the Bobcats their third straight game, 89-87, on the road over Minnesota.

The Bobcats are now 4-3. The other young star in Charlotte -- Carolina's Cam Newton -- quarterbacks a team that is 2-7.

It's interesting how Kemba and Cam have gone in two separate directions in Year 2. They were very different in Year 1 -- Cam was the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year and had what I still consider the best rookie year by any player ever (Lawrence Taylor would have an argument, few others would).

Kemba, meanwhile, was shooting a nasty 36.6 percent for the 7-59 Bobcats. So he was at rock bottom and Cam was high on the mountain in Year One in Charlotte. In some ways, it is natural they have both moved toward each other in Year Two.

Now Kemba has far more help than he did a year ago. Cam has less (have you checked out his offensive line lately?) Kemba has more confidence. Cam has less. Kemba is making the big shots he mostly missed a season ago. Cam just isn't quite getting it done, especially in the fourth quarters of games.

Cam can still be great -- although right now he's an average NFL quarterback, as I wrote earlier this week. The cool thing, though, is that Kemba now looks like he can be great, too. And if both these young players stick around Charlotte for the next 5-10 years, it will be very interesting to watch their development.

Heads keep rolling at Bank of America Stadium as Panthers fire special-teams coach

The heads continue to roll at Bank of America Stadium -- Panthers head coach Ron Rivera fired special teams coordinator Brian Murphy Monday. He has replaced Murphy with Richard Rodgers, a college teammate of Rivera's at California who he had brought in as the special teams assistant for 2012. Here's my column about the firing and what it means for Tuesday's newspaper.

Murphy's coverage teams allowed a 76-yard punt return touchdown in Denver's 36-14 whipping of Carolina on Sunday. It also got a missed field goal from Justin Medlock and, as usual, nothing good from its own kick and punt coverage teams.

By doing this in midseason, we get another indication of how serious Rivera's own situation is. General manager Marty Hurney has already been fired -- team owner Jerry Richardson issued that pink slip -- and Rivera and his staff are also coaching for their jobs over the final seven games of the season.

So was this a good move? I think so. Murphy's special teams have mostly underperformed for the past year and a half. Rivera characterized the move as necessary because of "philosophical differences" and a lack of production from the special teams. He's got to try something, and of the three chief Panther assistants (the offensive and defensive coordinators being the other two), Murphy has shown the least when you look at the entire history of all the coaches' 25-game tenure.

Of course, no one has shown too much -- the Panthers are 8-17 under Rivera and this staff, which is why all of them have a tenuous hold on their jobs. But if you were going to shake things up, as Rivera obviously thinks he needs to, Murphy was the likely choice to go.

Now what about Rodgers? Well, he shares a name with the American composer who co-wrote Oklahoma, South Pacific and The Sound of Music. But he's not that guy. This is the Richard Rodgers who was part of the five-lateral affair called "The Play" that beat Stanford in 1982. This is his first year in the NFL, so there's really no telling how he will do.

One thing it sounds like is going to happen, though: Joe Adams is going to start returning kicks again before long. Adams got in Rivera's doghouse because he fumbled three times this season, but the Panthers are getting so little out of their punt and kickoff returns that they've got to try something. Rivera said Adams would be getting an opportunity before long.

Panthers take a 36-14 beating from Denver

Carolina fans got to be happy Sunday for almost one whole quarter. The Panthers scored the second time they got the ball, the defense held the Broncos to no points on their first two possessions and it was 7-0, Carolina, late in the first period.

From there, though, it was all downhill. (Here's my column about the game, on the scary thought that Cam Newton has become an average NFL quarterback). The Broncos scored 29 straight points before the Panthers finally got on the board again late in the fourth quarter, thumping Carolina, 36-14, in Denver head coach John Fox's return to Charlotte. By the end, more than half the fans in a mostly empty stadium wore Denver orange.

Four reasons the Panthers (2-7) lost so badly:

1) Offensive third-down conversions. The Panthers were 0-for-19 on third downs. I mean, really? After that one TD drive early -- when they didn't even need a third down to score -- they couldn't sustain a thing.

2) Awful special teams. The Panthers had improved in this area for much of 2012, but reverted to their 2011 ways in this game. Denver's Trindon Holliday, the shortest player in the NFL at 5-foot-5, took a punt back 76 yards for a score in the second quarter. Justin Medlock also missed a 43-yard field goal that would have cut the Broncos' lead to 17-10. (Note: Holliday did throw the ball out of bounds before crossing the plane of the goal line, though, so that TD technically should have been overturned.)

3) Peyton Manning. In only his second game ever in Charlotte, Manning was pretty much just what you would expect. At one point, he was 13-for-14 and the only incompletion was a drop. He did lose a fumble, but in general his errors weren't bad ones and his throws, while occasionally fluttery, almost always were perfect. He threw for 301 yards, one TD and no interceptions.

4) Cam Newton and his offensive line. Can't put this all on Newton, because he got hit over and over as the Panthers' offensive line was simply overwhelmed -- especially by Broncos linebacker Von Miller. But Newton's throw while under heavy pressure that got picked off by Tony Carter and returned 40 yards for a TD was the game's back-breaker, and he overthrew Steve Smith several times. And Newton just kept holding and holding and holding the ball. Newton also took a fourth-quarter safety on the Broncos' seventh -- yes, their seventh -- sack.

At least the towel Newton covered his head in on the sidelines was cool -- camouflage color, in honor of Veterans Day. (Steve Smith later used one of those towels to cover his head while the Panthers were driving for their late fourth-quarter score while the rest of the Panther first-teamers were still on the field -- Ron Rivera said later he asked for Smith to be pulled because he wanted to let the young guys play some, but that it wasn't a "performance issue." Smith would not talk to reporters after the game.

On the plus side: It was a beautiful day. Panther owner Jerry Richardson released a statement more or less discounting reports that he might move the team to Los Angeles. Greg Olsen caught two TD passes. And the Panthers' defense actually played pretty well.

The Panthers' defense, in fact, only allowed 20 points -- the other 16 came from the Broncos' return scores on the punt and interception and the safety. But the Panthers' offense was so inept when it mattered that this bird never had a chance to fly.

Geez, the Bobcats are better than they were last season

It was only one victory over Dallas and both Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion were out for the Mavericks. But the Charlotte Bobcats' 101-97 overtime victory over the Mavericks Saturday night still was quite a sign as to how far they've come from that horrid 23-game loss streak that ended last season.

This was the Bobcats' second victory, both of them at home. This one also came over the only NBA team the Bobcats had never beaten. I was in the stands, watching with my son and one of his buddies, which was a nice place to be. I wasn't working the game for the newspaper, but thought I'd weigh in anyway with a bonus blog since it was so good. Five quick impressions:

1) Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (25 points, 12 rebounds) looked like a major player against the Mavericks. This was exactly what the Bobcats (2-3) hoped he would be when they drafted him No.2 this summer -- a little bit of everything. Michael Jordan compared MKG to Scottie Pippen in The Observer's recent interview with MJ -- on this night, it didn't seem quite as farfetched.

2) I thought I was dreaming, but it was reality: Gana Diop actually played in the third quarter and had a block and a steal on consecutive possessions.

3) Kemba Walker (26 points, eight steals) has taken a major leap in Year Two. His quickness can be stunning. Either he or MKG were involved in just about every key play for Charlotte. And Walker is getting so much better at working himself free and then hitting the mid-range jumper.

4) Dallas's Vince Carter got in Brendan Haywood's face after the game ended, as Haywood tried to keep Carter away from the Bobcats' bench. Looked like it could have gotten ugly for about 30 seconds, but the two former Tar Heels ultimately kept it (mostly) a verbal altercation except for some light shoving. Carter was furious about something, though.

5) The Bobcats' recovery in the final 25 seconds of regulation was quite a feat. Down four with 25 seconds left, they got a dunk by Haywood, a missed free throw, a rebound and finally a driving layup by Ramon Sessions (who has been a very good closer so far) to tie it. After that, winning the OT was comparatively easy.

Longtime Panther fan who sells tickets because of team's inferior play ignites firestorm

The comments of longtime PSL holder Todd Pedersen have ignited quite a debate among Panther fans. Pedersen, in this column I wrote for Friday's newspaper, routinely sells his Panther tickets and makes no apologies for doing so. They often end up in the hands of fans of the other team. He said it's his way of recouping some of his investment in the PSLs and boycotting the inferior product the Panthers have put on the field since 2010 (they are 10-30 in that time frame, the NFL's worst record).

Well, that column started a firestorm. Presented here, without names attached except for one prominent Panther fan most people would know in the final comment, are some excerpts from the comments that the story has gotten and emails I've received:

-- Todd Pedersen -- RIGHT ON!!!!!! My wife and I are PSL holders from the team's inception, and his comments express my sentiments perfectly.

-- He's no FAN. He's a sell-out, bandwagon rider, and proud of it. Pathetic.

-- When the Packers didn't win for decades, they still had loyal fans. Just sell your tickets and quit dogging on your team in public. You're an embarrassment to yourself and the city.

-- I am a displaced Panther Fan, I get DirecTV so I can watch the games from Eglin AFB, FL. My whole family is driving up (11 hrs) for the long Veteran's Day weekend so we can go to the Panther Game and support our team....and this is the guy you choose to profile?

-- I absolutely agree with Mr. Pedersen. I grew up a N.Y. Giants football fan. Knowing how difficult it was to get Giants tickets, I purchased six PSLs. Unfortunately, I still have them. For the last three years I have sold the whole season.

-- When I read the first few paragraphs, I was ready to fry this guy! But having read the article all the way through, I (also a Clemson SC/Year 1 Vet and having only missed about 7 games since Day 1) can't blame him. Understand his frustration completely. And he offered up his name.

-- I sold about half of my tickets this year mainly for economic reasons. All but one game I sold to friends at face value who I know are Panther fans. I did sell my Cowboys tickets online and not sure who bought them, but expect it was a Cowboys fan as they are the only ones stupid enough to pay $300 for (2) $41 tickets. That $218 profit helped me to be able to go to the games that I did.

--You don't QUIT as a fan because of losing; his family doesn't quit on him, when he doesn't sell his wares consistently! I challenge the guy to sit with me at a game next year so that I can show him what he lacks!....... LOYALTY. -- Greg "Catman" Good

My Panthers-Broncos prediction and some pregame notes

Sunday is a special day for the NFL in Charlotte, but not because John Fox is coming back to Carolina to coach the Denver Broncos.

We've seen Fox coach before -- nine years worth of him. He will be working the gum, listening to the the headset, slapping some hands, making a few smart and a few very conservative decisions and saying "It is what it is" in his postgame press conference. No big deal.

But Peyton Manning in Charlotte? Now that's something different. Even though Manning has been in the league since 1998, he has only played in Charlotte once. That was in 2007, when Manning led the Indianapolis Colts to a 31-7 rout of a Carolina team coached by Fox and quarterbacked by Vinny Testaverde and David Carr (i.e., the bad old days).

Manning also lost a game to the Panthers in 2003, when Carolina won on the road at Indianapolis in overtime during the Panthers' Super Bowl season under Fox.

Manning is one of those guys all NFL fans should feel slightly richer for having seen in person. So if you've got a ticket for Sunday, consider yourself lucky no matter the outcome. There's no guarantee Manning, 36, will ever play football in Charlotte again -- in fact, it's more likely that he won't.

** It's worth remembering that the Panthers once tried hard to trade for Manning. In 1998, before the draft, the Panthers offered Indianapolis and former Carolina general manager Bill Polian (then running the Colts) a slew of assets for the No.1 pick Indianapolis held. Those assets included quarterback Kerry Collins (a Polian favorite -- he had taken him in 1995 while at Carolina), wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad and some high draft picks.

The Colts thought about it, but ultimately said no. Then they took Manning.

Oh, what might have been. Collins was allowed to quit the team only a few months later by Panther coach Dom Capers and Manning became the only man ever to be a four-time NFL MVP.

** If the Panthers plan to spring this upset, they better have a lead built up once the fourth quarter rolls around. Manning has thrown nine touchdown passes and zero interceptions this year in the fourth quarter, leading Denver to a 103-23 point advantage in the last 15 minutes. That's easily tops in the NFL (Carolina has been outscored 65-36 in the fourth period).

** Two really good young linebackers are in this game -- Denver's Von Miller and Carolina's Luke Kuechly. Miller makes more splashy plays -- he is tied for the NFL lead in tackles for loss -- but Kuechly has already established himself as one of the surest tacklers in the league.

** The Broncos aren't unbeatable, as their 5-3 record will attest. Carolina has been in every game but one this season, but the Panthers are 2-6 because they are 0-5 in games decided by seven points or less.

I don't think the Broncos will utterly dominate the Panthers, but it's hard to take Cam Newton over Manning in the fourth quarter at this point in their respective careers. My prediction: Denver 27, Carolina 21.