UPDATED NFC playoff picture entering tonight's game

Sunday's results really couldn't have gone any better for the Panthers -- or Tampa Bay -- entering tonight's huge Monday Night Football game.

One of these teams will have four losses by about 11:30 p.m. Monday, but that team's chances to be the No.5 seed in the playoffs (rather than fall out of them entirely) got better Sunday due to practically every NFC wild-card contender losing. Dallas lost to Pittsburgh, Atlanta lost to New Orleans and Washington lost to Baltimore.

PLUS, the New York Giants got upset by Philly. That means that the WINNER tonight has a shot at the No.1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs (with Carolina likely needing to upset the Giants on the road Dec.21 to make that happen).

If you're really thinking positive, Carolina now CONTROLS its own destiny -- 4 straight wins, including tonight, and the Panthers would lock up the No.1 seed. That's not going to happen, but you're welcome to dream.

But all of those losses Sunday will give some cushion to tonight's loser, which will still be a game ahead in the wild-card race with three to go. Here are the current NFL standings. Check my charts out below to see how it will look Tuesday morning if the Panthers WIN and if they LOSE tonight:

NFC PLAYOFF STANDINGS WITH 3 WEEKS TO GO -- IF THE PANTHERS WIN

1. NY Giants 11-2
2. CAROLINA 10-3 (and with a chance for homefield advantage if Panthers could beat the Giants Dec.21)
3. Minnesota 8-5
4. Arizona 8-5 (has clinched division and no worse than a No.4 spot; could move to No.3 with win over Vikings next Sunday)
5. TAMPA BAY 9-4
6. DALLAS (6-4 conference record slightly better than Atlanta's 5-4, so 8-5 Falcons would be out at the moment, along with all the 7-win teams)

IF THE PANTHERS LOSE TONIGHT

1. NY Giants 11-2
2. Tampa Bay 10-3
3. Minnesota 8-5
4. Arizona 8-5
5. CAROLINA 9-4 (Panthers probably wouldn't have any home playoff games in this scenario -- too much ground to make up on Tampa Bay)
6. DALLAS 8-5

So, obviously, this game has gotten even a little more important due to the results of the past 24 hours.

My Panthers-Bucs prediction

I've managed to pick the Panthers correctly the past 4 weeks in a row in the newspaper and on this blog. Here's what I think will happen Monday night.

** There are bitter rivalries and healthy rivalries, and I’d like to think this one is the latter. It seemed more bitter when Warren Sapp and Kris Jenkins were around to fuel the fire. But guys like Jake Delhomme, Ronde Barber, Derrick Brooks and Jeff Garcia -- they understand what the NFL is all about, and they understand how special a game like this can be in prime time.

** It’s nice to have a meaningful game like this to talk about on a Monday in December – far preferable to talking about how your 401(k) has turned into a 101(k) or how far behind you are on your Christmas shopping.

** Remember that Tampa Bay blocked a Jason Baker punt in the first game this season, and that sent the whole thing spiraling downhill for Carolina in that 27-3 Panther loss. Watch for the Bucs to go after another one.

** Delhomme generally plays well against Tampa Bay, which is why that 24-point loss the first time around was such a surprise. He will rebound tonight in front of the home crowd. But Garcia has always given the Panthers trouble – mobile quarterbacks often seem to befuddle this team.

** Steve Smith and DeAngelo Williams both have to have big games tonight for Carolina to pull this one out. I think they will.
My prediction: Carolina 24, Tampa Bay 21.

LeBron on Curry's NBA prospects

LeBron James had a long day in Charlotte Saturday, going to the Davidson-N.C. State game at 12 noon in Time Warner Cable Arena and then leading his Cleveland Cavaliers to an easy 20-point win over the Charlotte Bobcats in a 7 p.m. tipoff. James scored 25 in that one despite sitting out the entire fourth quarter as the Cavs coasted to victory.

You can see the blog post directly below this one for more details on James' exuberant cheering for his friend Curry -- who had 44 points during Davidson's 72-67 win over N.C. State. But it was interesting to hear what James had to say about Curry's NBA prospects Saturday.

LeBron compared Curry to a couple of NBA all stars -- one current, one retired -- when asked to evaluate his game.

"Steph is a guy who can create for himself and also for others with his passing ability," LeBron said. "He’s like a Rip Hamilton in our league. He never stops moving. Those types of players, it’s hard to guard them, no matter how big you are. Guys in the NBA don’t want to continue to chase guys like that. That’s why you see Rip is so successful, and Reggie Miller before Rip, and you see Steph and the success he’s had so far."

Curry has said he won't decide on whether to return to Davidson for his senior year until after this season ends. The junior point guard currently leads the nation in scoring with 31.3 points per game.

Charlotte Bobcats coach Larry Brown said the fact that Curry got James out of the hotel to come watch Curry play was "testimony" to how dazzling Curry really is. Brown said he also watched every minute of the Davidson-N.C. State game and complimented Davidson on how well-coached the team is.

Why didn't LeBron just stay in his hotel and watch the game on TV? Said LeBron of Curry: “He’s one of those players that will get somebody out to go watch. For him to continue to have success at that school – I’m not taking anything away from that school but their team isn’t the best – he makes those guys play hard. They compete in every game they’re in, even against some teams that people say they shouldn’t beat. I can relate to that.”

Curry, LeBron and an amazing day

Stephen Curry and LeBron James are buddies, which makes what is happening in uptown Charlotte today all the sweeter.

LeBron just got finished watching from the front row in Time Warner Cable Arena as Curry poured in 44 points to carry Davidson to a 72-67 win over N.C. State. He came to the game despite the fact he played last night and will play tonight, too, against Charlotte with his Cleveland Cavaliers at 7 p.m. (Curry plans to be there for that one, he says).

LeBron befriended Curry last year in the NCAA tourney run, obviously recognizing in Curry some of the extraordinary skills that LeBron owns himself. The two mainly keep in touch with text messages these days. Curry said after the game that LeBron sent him a complimentary text after he scored zero against Loyola, standing in the corner on most offensive possessions to draw a double-team and allowing Davidson to win by 30.

LeBron's text said winning was all that mattered, Curry said, and complimented the Davidson star on his unselfishness. Curry said he watches LeBron on TV and texts him after some games, too, but that his texts are more along the line of "Sick Dunk!"

LeBron also texted Curry Saturday morning, wishing him luck, but didn't tell Steph he was coming to the Davidson-State game. LeBron said afterward he only decided to come at 11:30 a.m. -- tipoff was at noon. "Being in my position, I can kinda do things like that," LeBron said, laughing. "I didn’t want to do that, I didn’t want to pull that string, but I had to.... And I got a decent seat, too."

James said the time commitment was well worth it and called Curry's game "spectacular."

Against N.C. State, Curry took 33 shots because that was the best way for Davidson to win (he made 15). N.C. State played him so closely on defense he often drove past defenders and then threw up crazy-looking bank shots. In the second half, LeBron would invariably hold a finger or fist aloft on every Curry shot, then slam it down when the ball dropped.

LeBron's biggest reaction came when Curry hit a 37-foot three-pointer that basically cinched the game for Davidson, but he also got up out of his seat several other times in celebration of Curry baskets. It was an entertaining sideshow -- LeBron as Superfan. After Curry's 37-footer (that number is an estimate from Coach Bob McKillop), Curry came walking back and pointing at LeBron in celebration.

It was quite a moment in an arena filled with red -- both the State and Davidson versions -- and in a game that felt like an NCAA tournament contest all the way through.

The only downside for Curry Saturday: he missed three free throws, usually about a month's worth for him. He laughingly blamed that on another one of his Superfans -- his Mom Sonya. Curry said she kept yelling to him "Stay on the line!", believing he was drifting back while taking free throws, and that psyched him out.

Take Gruden with LOTS of salt

Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden has praised the Panthers to excess, but don't let the talk fool you.

If you ever need a good publicity agent, try to hire Tampa Bay coach Jon Gruden.

Anything Gruden says right before a game with another team must be taken not only with a grain of salt, but with a salt-shaker full of it. Gruden is one of the best coaches I've ever seen at publicly building up his foes just before trying to beat the stuffing out of them.

Latest case in point: Gruden has said this week that Panther WR Steve Smith reminds him of Freddy Krueger (on the field only) and that Panther LB Jon Beason is a "buzz saw."

But Gruden does this every time these two teams play. I feel like Jimmy Buffett in "Margaritaville" every time I hear him talk about the Panthers, because I'm always searching for my lost shaker of salt to pour on whatever Gruden says. He has previously also said Jake Delhomme, Julius Peppers and John Kasay give him nightmares. (Gruden's dreams must be a nasty and very strange place -- a nightmare starring John Kasay? What would he do, kick footballs at you?). Gruden has also claimed previously that Carolina CBs Ken Lucas, Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall are as good as any trio in the NFL.

I'm sure the next time the teams play Gruden will be comparing punter Jason Baker to Jason in "Friday the 13th" because he can slice a pooch punt so nicely.

This is just Gruden's way. Not that he doesn't respect the Panthers and it's all a farce; it's just waaaaay overdone. Listen to Gruden and you'd believe the Panthers lead this all-time series 16-0; in fact, it's just 9-7, Panthers.

I think Gruden mostly does it to motivate his own guys, who get tired of hearing about all the Panthers' supposed Pro Bowlers (Carolina actually had zero Pro Bowlers in 2007) and then try to go out and beat Carolina 27-3 or something.

Mark Jones: NFC special-teamer of week

The Panthers got a bit of good news Wednesday -- kick returner Mark Jones was named the NFC's Special Teams Player of the Week for his performance against Green Bay.

Jones averaged 38.8 yards on four kickoff returns against the Packers, repeatedly setting the Panthers up with great field position in their 35-31 win. The most important return was the 45-yarder with 1:57 to go, which set up Carolina's game-winning TD drive. Coach John Fox told the team in the huddle at the conclusion of Wednesday's practice, resulting in applause and shouts for Jones.

That Wednesday Panther practice was an abbreviated, low-impact affair, as the team has an extra practice day to get ready for Monday night's home game against Tampa Bay. I think it's the most significant regular-season home game in Panther history, as I've written in this column.

After practice, Fox was asked what Carolina needed to do differently this time around after losing 27-3 to Tampa on Oct.12. "Oh, just about everything," the coach said.

Tampa game among most significant ever for Panthers

Hi, everyone. I'm glad to be home in Charlotte. I got stranded in Wisconsin and then O'Hare airport in Chicago following the Green Bay game, and didn't actually get back into my own house until the wee hours Tuesday morning.

Anyway, I'm writing a column for Wednesday's Charlotte Observer on how the Tampa Bay-Carolina game stacks up in terms of significance for all home games in Carolina's 14-year football history (there have been slightly more than 100 of them altogether).

Now take into account, this list is only about HOME games (so no Super Bowl, no road playoff games). And it's not a list of Carolina's best wins ever. It's a list of their most SIGNIFICANT home games ever -- the ones that meant the most, either at the time or in retrospect.

Here's my top five chart, which will run in Wednesday's paper, along with a few honorable mentions, which won't:

MOMENTOUS HOME GAMES
Here's my take on the 5 most significant home games in the Carolina Panthers’ 14-season history:

1) DALLAS -- Jan.4, 1997. It’s never as good as the first time. Carolina’s first-ever home playoff game was a 26-17 win over a Dallas team that included the Fab Four of Michael Irvin, Deion Sanders, Emmitt Smith and Troy Aikman.
2) DALLAS – Jan.3, 2004. The Panthers began their run to the Super Bowl with a 29-10 whipping of the Cowboys; Steve Smith set the tone with a 70-yard reception on Panthers’ first pass.
3) TAMPA BAY, Dec.8, 2008 – Coming this Monday night, a December home game under the lights, with two 9-3 teams and bitter rivals fighting for NFC South superiority. Extremely significant no matter how it turns out.
4) PITTSBURGH -- Dec.22, 1996. Chad Cota’s end-zone interception -- which was hard to see from any vantage point -- clinched 12-4 season and Carolina’s first division title.
5) NEW ORLEANS -- Jan.2, 2005. Panthers would have made 2004playoffs with win after 1-7 start to season, but stunk it up in a 21-18 loss to the Saints.

My 2 honorable mentions: Carolina's first-ever home win in Oct.1995, when Sam Mills returned Bubby Brister's shovel pass for a TD in a 26-15 victory at Clemson and Carolina's 23-7 win over San Francisco in 1996, which came during the 49ers' heyday and showed everyone the Panthers would be a force that season.

Now remember, this list can include both wins and losses (see No.5). I'm sure I'm forgetting some other big home games -- tell me if you remember any or disagree with anything on this list.