Friday, October 24, 2014

My pick for Carolina vs Seattle

Cam Newton said this week he will throw at Pro Bowl Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman Sunday -- and he had better.

If you don't go after Sherman at least to some extent, you shrink the available field to throw in by a third. It makes it too easy for Seattle's safeties to cover everything else, and too difficult to ever get big chunks of yardage.

And Newton will need at least one explosive play today from one of his receivers. In 2012 and 2013 in previous home games against Seattle, Newton hasn't had a pass play of more than 27 yards in either game. That contributed mightily to the fact that Carolina's offense has only scored one TD combined in those two games (the only other TD was a pick-six interception return by Captain Munnerlyn) and that Newton has thrown for less than 150 yards in both of them.

Russell Wilson, on the other hand, threw for 320 yards in Seattle's 12-7 win last season.

-- I thought Panther safety -- and former North Carolina defensive back -- Tre Boston had a good point when he was talking about UNC's academic fraud scandal this week. He said it had devalued his own degree, which he said he obtained in 3.5 years with no "paper" classes.

"Luckily I'm playing here," Boston said. "But one day I'm going to have to use that degree out in the world and I don't want somebody to be like, 'Hey, you were there when all the academic fraud stuff went down.' So it's kind of sad."

-- You know that Russell Wilson once starred at N.C. State. But do you remember that Seahawks kicker Steven Hauschka went there for a single season in 2007 after transferring from Division III Middlebury College, where he originally played soccer? And how about J.R. Sweezy? The Seahawks' starting right guard is from Mooresville and started as a junior and senior in Raleigh as a defensive tackle before the Seahawks converted him to the offensive line.

-- I am 4-2-1 picking the Panthers' outcome. The Seahawks' defense has gone downhill some from last year's No.1 unit, but it hasn't dropped nearly as far as Carolina's. My prediction: Seattle 30, Carolina 20.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

Packers crush Panthers in Green Bay, 38-17

GREEN BAY, Wisc. -- The Carolina Panthers put their fans back into full panic mode Sunday, getting eviscerated, 38-17, by Green Bay in a game which will also be remembered as the one in which middle linebacker Luke Kuechly was kicked out.

Other than Kuechly's third-quarter ejection -- for striking an official after coming out of a pileup (he said later he didn't know it was a ref) -- this was one of the least dramatic and most thorough beatdowns in Carolina's 20-year history.

By the end of the first quarter, Green Bay led 21-0 on the scoreboard and 172-5 in total yardage, and after that it was really just a matter of playing out the string.

The Panthers are 3-3-1 and still alone in first place in the NFC South after Atlanta and New Orleans both lost Sunday. But those three losses have been so excruciatingly bad that they feel worse than a .500 team. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (three TD passes) had his way with Carolina all afternoon, but just as troublesome was Carolina's inability to muster any of the offense that had led the Panthers to 37 points the week before in Cincinnati.

Other than tight end Greg Olsen, who had a 100-yard receiving day, the Panthers hardly had any offense worth noting. They didn't score a touchdown until the fourth quarter, when they were already down, 38-3. The last two TDs made the score sound somewhat respectable, but anyone who watched it knows this was a complete whipping.

The Panthers have now given up at least 37 points in four of their last five games. When they are bad, they are very, very bad -- and the worst culprit of all is the defensive secondary. It showed up on the Packers' very first drive, when Jordy Nelson first beat Antoine Cason up the sideline and then sidestepped Roman Harper so thoroughly that Harper couldn't even get a hand on Nelson. Poof -- 59-yard touchdown with less than four minutes gone, and the rout was on.

What can Carolina do? Not a lot, except get better from the inside-out. The Panthers are mostly stuck with the players they have got. They next play a home game against Seattle, the defending Super Bowl champions who have come to Charlotte and won each of the last two years. Seattle lost Sunday, too, and also looks vulnerable -- but not nearly as vulnerable as the Panthers.

Friday, October 17, 2014

My pick for Green Bay vs Carolina

If you are an NFL running back, this should be a good game in which to play. While most of the pregame headlines have involved Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton, the game may end up being decided by the likes of Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Stewart.

Green Bay has allowed the most rush yardage per game in the NFL -- 154.5 per contest, which is awful and dead last in the league. Carolina, though, has allowed the two longest single runs in the league (89 and 81 yards). Opponents have averaged a startling 5.5 yards per rush, which is also dead last in the league. If there isn't at least one 100-yard rusher in this game, it will be surprising. (As for the picture that accompanies this blog, I couldn't resist even though it's not that relevant. That was one of Steve Smith's best catches ever, and it set up the game-winning TD the last time Carolina played at Green Bay, in 2008).

-- Linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis have been Carolina's best two defensive players this year, but neither of them yet has a fumble recovery or an interception. While their tackles have been money, their own personal takeaways have been non-existent. If Carolina is to beat Green Bay, that's probably going to need to change.

-- Do you remember that Cam Newton's career high in passing yardage came against Green Bay? It was only the second game of his NFL career. He threw for 432 yards vs. the Packers on Sept.18, 2011, but the Panthers lost anyway, 30-23. Carolina led 13-0 in what was Newton's home debut before giving it all back, helped in part by Newton's three interceptions.

That's one place Newton has improved significantly. He only has two picks this season, albeit with 10 games to go. In his first three seasons, he had 12, 13 and 17 pickoffs.

-- The first time the Panthers ever played in Green Bay was memorable to all who were there, as I was. Carolina lost 30-13 in the NFC championship game to the Packers in the 1996 postseason, but what I remember most from that day is how cold it was. It was three degrees, and the wind chill was minus-17. The temperature Sunday is supposed to be around 50 degrees, with a chance of rain.

-- It's safe to say that no forecaster in America got the Carolina-Cincinnati exactly right -- a 37-37 tie wasn't on anyone's radar. Like the Panthers, I am now a modest 3-2-1 predicting their outcome. I don't like the matchup of Aaron Rodgers vs. a very mediocre secondary. My pick: Green Bay 33, Carolina 27.

Monday, October 13, 2014

Olsen is right -- Burfict should be suspended

I have never heard Panther tight end Greg Olsen so inflamed, and rightly so, after Cincinnati linebacker Vontaze Burfict twisted both Olsen's and Cam Newton's ankles in the end zone on Carolina scoring plays in Sunday's 37-37 tie with Cincinnati. (UPDATE: Burfict has reportedly been fined $25,000 by the league for the two ankle twists but he won't be suspended).

Olsen's quotes in this story by The Observer's Joseph Person bear a close look, because Olsen is a classy guy and a Panther captain and he measures what he says carefully. For him to call out Burfict like that -- and to call for a suspension, not just a fine -- speaks volumes about what the TV replays showed. And after watching the replays, I agree completely with him. I think Burfict should be suspended. What Burfict did has no place in football. He looked like he was using his hands for a screwdriver and Newton's and Olsen's ankles for the screw.

Burfict was flagged for two 15-yard penalties Sunday, but neither time that he "cranked," to use Olsen's word, the ankle of Newton and Olsen, was he penalized. Newton did briefly kick at Burfict to try and get him off the ankle -- the Panther quarterback was not available for comment Monday.

In instances like that that are so clearly premeditated, that he had in his mind that if he had those opportunities that he was going to try to attack guys’ legs, but guys who are coming off ankle problems specifically, there’s no room for it,” Olsen said Monday.

“And I think the punishment needs to go beyond a fine. Guys like that don’t learn from that stuff. He’s been fined 100 times for head-hunting and he did it to (receiver) Kelvin (Benjamin) again. You watch the film, it’s just what he is.”

One hundred times is an exaggeration, but Olsen was obviously fired up. Burfict twice last season was fined $21,000 by the NFL for hits on receivers – one of whom was current Panthers practice squad wideout Stephen Hill, when Hill was with the N.Y. Jets. Burfict was also assessed a $10,000 fine for striking Green Bay tight end Ryan Taylor in the groin. The Cincinnati Enquirer also notes that Burfict had eight unnecessary roughness penalties in 2013 and is tied for the team lead in penalties this year despite having concussion problems. Burfict led the NFL in unnecessary-roughness penalties in 2013. In his college career, the Enquirer notes, Burfict had 22 personal fouls in 37 games.

We are talking about a dirty football player here. Certainly Bengals coach Marvin Lewis struck the wrong tone when asked about Burfict's ankle twists Monday, laughing it off by saying: "Ankle wrenching? Sounds like the WWF."

Olsen said if the league is serious about player safety, it needs to crack down on players who are intentionally trying to hurt opponents. But will it? That's an open question. I believe a two-game, unpaid suspension would send the right message to Burfict -- one game for each ankle crank.

“At some point, if the NFL wants to really say they care about guys’ safety, they’ve got to start putting guys out for weeks because me and Cam were lucky we weren’t out for weeks, or Kelvin’s out for weeks,” Olsen said. “If you’re going to start putting guys on other teams’ out, then the ramifications need to equal that.”

Or, as Panther kicker Graham Gano put it on Sunday night on Twitter:


Sunday, October 12, 2014

Panthers survive, get a happy tie with Cincinnati

Dee-Fense. Dee-Fense.

Where was it?

The Panthers' defense had all sorts of problems again Sunday, but Carolina still ended up tying Cincinnati, 37-37, in overtime in the highest-scoring tie game in modern NFL history.

Cincinnati kicker Mike Nugent missed a 36-yard field goal on the final play of overtime to let Carolina off the hook. The Panthers' defense had allowed Cincinnati to get inside the 20 yet again, but Nugent sent the ball wide right. Both teams had earlier had one field goal in overtime. It was the first tie game in the Panthers' 20-season history, and keeps them atop the NFC South.

The Panthers (3-2-1) gave up points on each of Cincinnati's first three possessions -- a field goal and two touchdowns, including an 89-yard run from Gio Bernard.

A brief flurry of good defensive plays in the third quarter -- including two interceptions of Andy Dalton -- gave Panther fans hope. And ultimately, it was barely enough to squeak out a tie. Panther wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin said after the game his team had come to Cincinnati looking for a "W" but ended up with a "T."

The Panthers almost wasted a dazzling game from Cam Newton, who ran the ball effectively for the first time all season -- he ran for 107 yards -- and was extremely accurate through the air most of the game. Newton threw two touchdown passes -- to his favorite targets Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen -- and ran for another. He had one overthrow for an interception. That miscue led Cincinnati's field goal to go ahead 34-31, which was matched by Gano with a 44-yarder as time expired in regulation. Newton also led a field-goal drive the only time Carolina got the ball in overtime (Rivera did not go for a fourth-and-1 at the Cincinnati 18 in overtime, instead having Gano tie the game at 37).

Gano didn't have a great day. He botched a 38-yard field-goal attempt early in the fourth quarter that would have put Carolina up, 27-17. Instead, it stayed 24-17, and the Bengals shortly were in the end zone again when Mohamed Sanu burned Carolina cornerback Melvin White for a 34-yard touchdown.

Gano, who is normally an automatic touchback machine on kickoffs, also had the misfortune of only getting one kickoff two yards deep to Adam "Pacman" Jones. Jones happily ran it out and ended up going 97 yards, getting tackled inside the 5. The Bengals scored on the next play.

Ultimately, though, the Panthers will happily take this one. That looked like a loss for much of the afternoon, but Carolina ended up grabbing half a loaf of bread right at the end thanks to Nugent and his miss.

Friday, October 10, 2014

My pick for Cincinnati-Carolina

When you think about homefield advantage in the NFL, you don't think of Cincinnati. Green Bay, New England, New Orleans, Seattle, Denver -- those sorts of places spring to mind first. But the Bengals have won a franchise-record 11 straight regular-season games at home in Paul Brown Stadium. They haven't lost a regular-season home game since 2012 in regular season. There is a caveat to this impressive statistic, though. The Bengals lost a huge playoff game at home at the end of last season, by 17 points to San Diego.

While the Bengals have generally been great in Cincinnati, it's not necessarily because they have a preponderance of fans in the stands. Cincinnati narrowly avoided a local TV blackout in Kentucky and Ohio for this game against Carolina, and only did so by barely selling 85 percent of its non-premium seats by the Thursday deadline. Good seats for this one will undoubtedly remain available up through kickoff.

-- Cincinnati receiver A.J. Green is almost certainly out for this game due to a toe injury, so the Panthers catch a major break there. But watch out for Mohamed Sanu, the Bengals' No.2 receiver. He's very underrated.

-- What the Panthers need at running back looks a lot like what Cincinnati already has. Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill are both young backs on rookie contracts who can really play. They have combined for five of Cincinnati's 10 TDs this season.

-- This is only Carolina's second visit to Cincinnati ever for a regular-season game. The Bengals have hosted every other team in the NFL more than that.

-- My predictions for the Panthers (3-2) so far this season have been up and down, much like the team itself. I missed last week, choosing Chicago to upset Carolina in Charlotte but instead watching the Panthers rebound from a 21-7 deficit to win by a TD. I'm now 3-2 picking Carolina's outcomes.

I think this week that Cincinnati at home is too big a hurdle for a Panther team that has struggled mightily against the AFC North already this season. My prediction: Cincinnati 27, Carolina 20.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Return of the Panther D in Carolina's 31-24 win over Chicago

The Panthers' defense turned back the clock all the way to 2013 in the second half Sunday, keying a come-from-behind 31-24 victory over Chicago.

The Panthers were down 21-7 deep in the second quarter, and things were looking grim. But Carolina outscored Chicago 24-3 the rest of the way, in large part because its defense suddenly remembered how to play football.

Carolina forced takeaways on each of Chicago's final three possessions of the fourth quarter -- an interception by Thomas DeCoud and two fumbles ripped from Matt Forte and Jay Cutler. Middle linebacker Luke Kuechly had a monstrous game and the Panther pass rush returned, with four sacks. Chicago quarterback Cutler ultimately lost his mojo completely, taking two sacks and losing a fumble on the Bears' final possession when Chicago was trying to score a game-tying TD.

Carolina returns to the top of the NFC South at 3-2, since Atlanta (2-3) lost to the New York Giants. Panther tight end Greg Olsen scored two touchdowns for Carolina, including the game-winner on a six-yard dart rom Cam Newton. The Panthers outscored Chicago 10-0 in the fourth quarter for the win, which was Ron Rivera's first as a head coach over the team where he used to both play and later served as defensive coordinator.